Catalytic Converter Theft Is Creeping Back in 2026 — What the Data Actually Shows

If you've seen a local news story this year about catalytic converter theft "surging" or "coming back," you're not imagining it — but the full picture is more complicated than either the alarming headlines or the reassuring national numbers suggest. Depending on which report you read, 2026 looks like either the safest year for car owners in decades or the start of a new theft wave. Both are true, just for different crimes and different places.

The Good News First: Overall Vehicle Theft Is at a Historic Low

Nationally, stealing a car has gotten harder. The National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) reported in March 2026 that 659,880 vehicles were reported stolen across the U.S. in 2025 — a 23% drop from 2024, and the lowest total in several decades. That followed a 17% decline in 2024, which NICB called the largest year-over-year drop in 40 years at the time. NICB credits coordinated work between law enforcement, automakers, and insurers for the trend.

The Twist: Catalytic Converter Theft Tells a Different Story

Catalytic converter theft — cutting the exhaust component out from under a parked car to sell its scrap platinum, palladium, and rhodium — followed the opposite arc for years, then also fell sharply. State Farm's claims data, published September 2024, showed claims peaking at roughly 45,000 in 2022, dropping to about 21,200 in 2023, then falling another 74% in the first half of 2024 (from over 14,800 claims in H1 2023 to about 3,800).

That's the last national-scale figure any major insurer has published. State Farm hasn't issued a follow-up report since, and NICB's most recent full-year converter data covers 2024. In other words: the most current "official" national statistics on this specific crime are already a year or more old — which is exactly why local reports matter right now.

And several local police departments are reporting real increases in early 2026. According to reporting compiled by MoneyGeek (February 2026), the St. Paul, Minnesota police department recorded 172 catalytic converter thefts in 2024 versus 504 in 2025 — a 193% increase — despite the state's strict 2023 anti-theft law remaining in force. Berkeley, California police reported nine thefts in the first week of January 2026 alone, including one armed robbery during a theft in progress, even though the city's totals had fallen from 847 in 2022 to roughly 250 for all of 2025. Police in Troy, Michigan and Harris County, Texas issued similar warnings in January 2026.

The honest takeaway: there is no confirmed national 2026 total yet, but the local data that does exist points the same direction, and it lines up with a clear economic driver.

Why Now? Follow the Metal Price

Catalytic converters contain small amounts of platinum-group metals, and rhodium — the priciest of the three — has moved a lot. Per pricing tracked by MoneyGeek, rhodium bottomed out near $4,600 per troy ounce in 2024 before climbing to roughly $10,400 by February 2026, a jump of over 100%. As of late July 2026, Kitco's live pricing put rhodium around $7,825 per ounce — down from its early-2026 peak, but still well above 2024 levels. This pattern isn't new: NICB and multiple insurers have documented for years that converter theft closely tracks precious-metal prices, since a single removed converter can still be worth $50 to over $1,000 in scrap depending on the vehicle. When metal prices climb, so does the incentive to steal — even while overall car theft keeps falling.

What Actually Helps

None of this requires panic, but it's a reasonable moment to double-check the basics, especially if you park in a driveway rather than a garage:

• Park where a light or a camera can see the car. NICB's own theft-prevention guidance recommends parking in a garage when possible, or in a well-lit spot visible from a window or covered by a security camera if it isn't.
• Consider a physical converter shield or etching your VIN into the converter — both raise the time and risk for a thief, and several states now require scrap dealers to log seller ID and vehicle ownership before buying a converter, which etching supports.
• Keep footage of your driveway, not just your front door. Most doorbell cameras are aimed at the porch, not the spot where your car is parked overnight. A camera with a wider view of the driveway — recording continuously rather than only on a triggered clip — gives you and the police something to actually review if a theft happens at 3 a.m. and nobody hears it.

This last point is where a phone you already own can genuinely help. Instead of buying a dedicated driveway camera, an old phone mounted with a view of your own driveway — running an app like iCameraPlus — can record continuously, send a motion alert if someone approaches the car overnight, and store the footage off the device so it's still there even if the phone itself is damaged or taken. It won't stop a determined thief, but it turns a three-minute crime with no witnesses into one with a timestamped video record for your insurer and local police.

What to Do If It Happens to You

If you wake up to a car that sounds like a leaf blower, don't try to drive it. NICB and insurers recommend filing a police report immediately, since a report is typically required before an insurance claim can be processed, and photo or video timestamps can help establish when the theft occurred. Comprehensive auto insurance (not liability-only) is what typically covers converter theft — check your policy before you need it, not after.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle theft overall is at its lowest level in decades, according to NICB's 2025 data — that part is genuinely good news. But catalytic converter theft is a narrower, metal-price-driven crime that appears to be climbing again in specific cities in 2026, even without a confirmed national total yet. Treat the local police reports as an early signal, not a certainty, and respond with the same low-cost basics that help either way: better lighting, a visible or recorded driveway, and a converter that's harder to remove or trace.

Sources

• National Insurance Crime Bureau — "U.S. Vehicle Thefts Experience Historic Decline" (March 18, 2026)
• State Farm Newsroom — "State Farm Data Reveals 74 Percent Drop in Catalytic Converter Thefts" (September 10, 2024)
• MoneyGeek — "Catalytic Converter Theft Is Back: 2025–2026 Rebound" (updated February 27, 2026)
• Kitco — Live Rhodium Price Chart (accessed late July 2026)